By making the playoffs this year, Buffalo finally ended their legendary drought. They still hold the record for the longest duration without qualifying for the playoffs (14 years) but the title for the longest *active* streak now goes to Detroit.

The last time Detroit clinched a playoff spot was 10 years ago. In NHL history, it puts them in second place, in a triple-tie with Florida and Edmonton, right after Buffalo’s infamous sequence.

As you all know, hopes were high when Detroit managed to repatriate its former star captain, Steve Yzerman, as General Manager. At the time, Yzerman was credited with building the Lightning as a powerhouse and one of the best organizations in the league. The team Yzerman assembled went on to win two consecutive Stanley Cups right after his departure. Thus, many thought Yzerman was going to rebuild the Red Wings franchise into a dynasty just like he had done in Tampa Bay.

There are many parallels that can be made between the Canadiens and the Red Wings. First, their rebuild started at (or around) the same time. Similar to Montreal, Detroit began its rebuilding process with a promising young center already in place (Larkin vs Suzuki). Over the subsequent years, Yzerman would methodically add key pieces to his core: Seider, Raymond, Edvinsson…

And the plan worked. The team experienced a steady progression under Yzerman over the first 5 years. As seen on the chart below, the team ended up with 39 pts in 2020, then 48 pts, 74 pts, 80 pts, and 91 pts … but seemingly capped prematurely with following seasons of 86 pts and 92 pts. This plateau puts the team each year right on the bubble, fighting for a playoff spot until the last few games of the season.

Unlike Toronto, which “didn’t see the Canadiens train coming,” Detroit was well aware of the Habs rebuild. In Detroit, fans and journalists kept an eye on their rearview mirror… and they held Yzerman accountable when the Canadiens’ rebuild surpassed their own last year.

I rapidly sifted through the Wings’ rebuild process to identify the reasons explaining their lack of progression. I would argue that it was almost predictable for two obvious/main reasons:
1- The Red Wings didn’t hold enough high-value draft picks to be successful.
2- The Red Wings don’t draft well… in fact, they are atrocious.

1- The relative dearth of high-value draft picks
We have seen in a previous post that the value of draft picks (well… in reality the value of players selected at a particular rank in a draft class) decreases exponentially, with top 5 picks being particularly precious. This is where impactful players are selected (statistically speaking).

In contrast, late R1 picks are possibly overvalued since the prediction is that they will most likely turn into 0.2 points-per-game players (there are exceptions, if you are lucky or particularly astute … but this is the historical average).

Let’s go back to our comparison with the Canadiens: Montreal selected four top 5 picks since 2018. Detroit has only had one (Lucas Raymond in 2020). You can repeat the exercise with the Ducks (three top 5 picks) or the upcoming Sharks (three top 5 picks) and the conclusion remains the same: the Red Wings didn’t accumulate enough juicy top picks to be efficient.

Ideally, they would have benefited from two other top 5 selections. As a result, the rebuild is lacking horsepower… like a plane reaching the end of the runway and it doesn’t have enough speed. It is failing to take off.

2- The Red Wings have a drafting problem
Detroit doesn’t draft well. This is particularly apparent by the lack of NHL-caliber players selected in round 2 or after. In fact, you would have to go back 10 years (to 2016) to find Filip Hronek, the only player selected in rounds 2 to 7 who managed to establish himself in the NHL.

(Honorable mention to Joe Veleno, selected 30th overall in 2018, who is not quite a regular player on the Canadiens roster this year. He has seen some action because the Habs have been plagued by several long-term injuries but otherwise Veleno remains a healthy scratch).

If we skip Hronek in 2016, we have to go back to 2013 to find other late draftees who successfully established themselves in the NHL with the selections of Tyler Bertuzzi and Mattias Janmark.

This is an extremely poor performance. Between 2014-2023, 79 players were selected by the Red Wings in rounds 2-7 and their only hit is Hronek, for an abysmal performance of 1.3%.

If we only look at round 2, we are talking about 17 selections over that period of time for a 5.8% success rate. The NHL average in round 2 is close to 25%. Thus, if the Red Wings were only average at drafting, they would have 3 more roster players stemming from their round 2 selections.

You know… like the occasional Jackson LaCombe in Anaheim or a Lane Hutson in Montreal who were both round 2 selections.

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What can we conclude from this exercise?

Unfortunately, the Red Wings rebuild appears to be lacking fuel. They should have accumulated more top 5 picks to draft more top talents.
Yzerman needed to resist the urge to sign free agents and to climb in the standings. By doing so, he might have shortened the rebuild process and/or obtained lower draft picks in the process.
Yzerman urgently needs to scrutinize the scouting department, which is considerably underperforming.
Sacrificing prospects and/or draft picks to obtain more power now might give immediate results but will hurt the long-term success of the rebuild because the foundations appear tenuous.